ILLINOIS — A new post from the DuPage County GOP is raising eyebrows after it pointed out a potential Republican path to victory in the 2026 Illinois governor’s race — if Donald Trump’s 2024 voters turn out again in full force.
In a tweet posted Monday morning, the county-level Republican group noted that Trump earned more votes in Illinois during the 2024 presidential election than Gov. JB Pritzker received during his successful 2022 reelection campaign.
“Trump got more Illinois votes in 2024 than Pritzker got in 2022… by a lot,” the post read.
The tweet includes side-by-side screenshots showing:
-
Pritzker (Democrat) won with 2,253,748 votes in 2022.
-
Trump (Republican) pulled 2,449,079 votes in 2024.
While Pritzker defeated GOP challenger Darren Bailey by over 500,000 votes, the comparison suggests Republican voter turnout could be decisive in a lower-turnout, off-cycle gubernatorial race.
Claim: Unified GOP Turnout Could Flip Illinois in 2026
The DuPage GOP’s post lays out a simple premise:
If the same Illinois voters who backed Trump in 2024 show up to vote for the Republican candidate for governor in 2026, that candidate would win — possibly easily.
It’s a hypothetical that relies on sustained momentum from a high-profile presidential election, but it hints at broader GOP hopes to capitalize on national enthusiasm at the state level.
This could signal early messaging for potential challengers to Democratic leadership in Illinois.
Interesting factoid about voter turnout:
If all the Illinois voters who voted for Trump in 2024 also voted for the Republican candidate for Governor in 2026, the Republican candidate for Governor would win easily.
Trump got more Illinois votes in 2024 than Pritzker got in… pic.twitter.com/nQSNBYdAqY
— DuPage GOP (@DuPageCountyGOP) July 1, 2025
Reality Check: Different Election Years, Different Turnouts
Political analysts warn against drawing too direct a line between presidential and midterm or off-cycle elections.
“Presidential election turnout is often much higher and broader than what we see in a governor’s race,” said a political science professor from the University of Illinois. “Voter enthusiasm, local issues, and candidate quality all play a massive role.”
In 2022, Gov. Pritzker won reelection comfortably, with 54.9% of the vote to Bailey’s 42.3%. Whether those same numbers hold in 2026 is far from guaranteed — especially if Democrats nominate a new candidate or if Republican turnout fluctuates.
Looking Ahead: Who Will Run in 2026?
It’s still unclear who the Republican or Democratic nominees for Illinois governor will be in 2026.
If Pritzker doesn’t run for a third term, the race could be wide open — and more susceptible to national influence.
Speculation has also swirled around names like former state senator Darren Bailey, who has remained active on the political circuit since his 2022 loss, and other downstate conservative figures.
On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson are among names floated as potential successors or contenders.
Do you think Trump’s Illinois voter base could flip the 2026 governor race? Or will Democrats retain control? Share your thoughts with us at ChicagoSuburbanFamily.com.
