CHICAGO — With recession fears dominating economic headlines, many residents are wondering whether now is the right time to buy or sell a home in the Chicago real estate market. A recent John Burns Research and Consulting survey found that nearly 68% of people are delaying their plans due to economic uncertainty — but experts say that waiting for a downturn may be based on faulty assumptions.
While some people are holding off due to fear, others are waiting in hope — thinking a recession will lead to lower home prices. But the data tells a different story.
Why Some Buyers Hope for a Recession
According to Realtor.com, nearly 30% of potential buyers in early 2025 said a recession would actually make them more likely to purchase a home. The thinking? If the economy dips, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, reducing mortgage costs and boosting affordability — especially for those with smaller down payments.
And that theory isn’t unfounded. In fact, mortgage rates have typically fallen during past recessions. Data from the last six economic slowdowns shows rates dropped every time — helping buyers lock in more favorable long-term costs.
But Lower Home Prices? Not So Fast
Here’s the catch: while many expect prices to crash during a recession, history shows that home prices usually stay flat or rise. According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), prices increased during four of the last six U.S. recessions — the 2008 crash being the rare exception.
In Chicago’s case, the city is still dealing with limited housing inventory, even as listings rise modestly. That ongoing supply-demand imbalance keeps upward pressure on prices, especially in desirable neighborhoods.
Chicago Housing Prices Likely to Stay on Track
Most housing analysts agree that prices in metros like Chicago tend to follow established momentum rather than drastically swinging. As Robert Frick, economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:
“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .”
In short, don’t count on a recession to bring the kind of deals seen in 2008. The fundamentals of today’s market are very different, with stricter lending standards and a tighter supply of available homes.
Don’t Wait for a Recession That May Not Help
While a downturn could mean lower interest rates, that doesn’t automatically mean lower home prices. If you’ve been holding off on your next move — whether buying or selling — it’s important to build a strategy based on real economic patterns, not assumptions.
Chicago residents considering a move can connect with trusted professionals at KM Realty Group LLC, located at 111 N Wabash Ave #1734. They specialize in navigating complex markets with up-to-date data and personal guidance.
Have you been waiting for the “right” time to buy or sell? Tell us your plans or ask local experts for advice at ChicagoSuburbanFamily.com.
